SIG-051 geopolitics WIN

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-06-30 · Resolved 2026-05-01

Market price

55%

at signal

Our estimate

20%

calibrated

Gap

+34.5pp

market vs ours

Status

WIN

2026-05-01

Market price history

Evidence

Operation Epic Fury launched Feb 28, 2026 with explicit objective of regime change
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei confirmed killed in initial strikes (late Feb/early March 2026)
Senior Iranian military and political leadership decapitated in opening phase of campaign
President Trump statement: operations to be completed within four-week timetable from late February
https://www.csis.org/analysis/operation-epic-fury-and-remnants-irans-nuclear-program - ongoing sustained bombing campaign with extensive US military engagement