SIG-050
geopolitics
WIN
Will US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
74%
at signal
Our estimate
92%
calibrated
Gap
+17.5pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- US-Israeli military strikes on Iran began Feb 28, 2026
- 7,000+ US ground forces deployed (82nd Airborne, Marines) as of March 31
- US Secretary of State: will 'physically secure nuclear material inside Iran'
- Trump confirmed military escalation ongoing as of March 30 on Truth Social
- Sustained military engagement for 1+ month with no ceasefire agreement