SIG-049
geopolitics
PENDING
Will Russia-Ukraine ceasefire be reached before GTA VI releases?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-09-04
Market price
54%
at signal
Our estimate
20%
calibrated
Gap
+33.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-09-04 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Trader consensus (March 27): 99.9% against ceasefire by March 31
- U.S.-brokered talks stalled — described as 'process without progress'
- Russia demands Ukrainian territorial withdrawal; Ukraine refuses
- Second Geneva round ended abruptly, talks described as 'very difficult'
- Irreconcilable demands on territory and security guarantees