SIG-045
politics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-11-30
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
45%
calibrated
Gap
+11.0pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-11-30 close
Evidence
- UC Berkeley IGS poll (Mar 9-15, 5000+ voters): 52% YES, 33% NO, 15% undecided
- SEIU-UHW reported 700k+ signatures collected, exceeding the 546k raw threshold; certification deadline April 17 for random sample check
- Bernie Sanders endorsed and rallied support (Feb 2026); SEIU-UHW has $3.5M+ in contributions
- Party breakdown: 72% Democrats support, 51% independents support — strong Democratic lean in California gives structural advantage
- Polymarket currently prices at 34% YES ($2.8M volume) — significantly below UC Berkeley polling showing 52% support
Counter-evidence
- Gov. Newsom is loudly opposing the measure, calling it "really damaging" and "bad economics" — and polling softens below 50% after voters hear opposition arguments (NBC News, March 2026).
- Historical California ballot initiatives lose 2-4pp between spring and November, and opposition spending from billionaires and business groups will intensify over the remaining 7 months.