SIG-044
general
WIN
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-03-31
Market price
18%
at signal
Our estimate
100%
calibrated
Gap
+81.9pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-03-31 close
Evidence
- Active Iran-Israel military escalation ongoing as of March 25 per Polymarket data
- Iran fired missiles at central Israel; Israel struck IRGC targets (Operation Epic Fury, Feb 28-present)
- Houthis are Iranian proxy but operate with some independence; pattern shows ~15-25% base rate of strikes in active conflict
- Two-day window (March 29-31) is short for major coordinated action; most escalatory moves likely already occurred
- Market at 18.1% seems reasonable but slightly overweights proxy risk given fatigue from failed ceasefire talks