SIG-043
general
LOSS
Predators vs. Lightning
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-03-29T21:00:00+00:00
Market price
36%
at signal
Our estimate
38%
calibrated
Gap
+2.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-03-29T21:00:00+00:00 close
Evidence
- Lightning: 45-21-6 (96 pts, home), Predators: 34-30-9 (77 pts, away)
- Lightning on winning streak, Predators on losing streak
- Star player differential: Kucherov 121 pts vs O'Reilly 66 pts
- Lightning 8-2 in last 10 H2H meetings
- 7.5 betting spread implies ~25-26% for Predators vs Polymarket 22.5%