SIG-041
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
24%
at signal
Our estimate
45%
calibrated
Gap
+21.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- Trump admin explicitly stated Cuba is next military target after Venezuela (March 28, 2026)
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly declared objective is 'regime change' (March 2026)
- U.S. warships positioned in northern Cuba; active naval operations in Florida Strait and Bahamas
- Pentagon statement: 'Attacks in Latin America are just the beginning' (March 23, 2026)
- U.S. conducting severe oil blockade with tariff threats on countries providing fuel to Cuba