SIG-040
geopolitics
PENDING
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
24%
at signal
Our estimate
11%
calibrated
Gap
+12.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-04-30 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Iran-U.S. war began Feb 28, 2026 (31 days ago); Khamenei assassinated
- Shipping traffic collapsed from 100+ ships/day to ~3-4 ships/day (98% reduction)
- Iran implementing 'toll booth' system; IRGC controlling passage and charging millions per transit
- Iran has conducted 21+ confirmed attacks on merchant vessels (as of March 12)
- U.S. military campaign to restore traffic only began March 19 (10 days in)