SIG-040 geopolitics WIN

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-30 · Resolved 2026-05-12

Market price

24%

at signal

Our estimate

11%

calibrated

Gap

+12.5pp

market vs ours

Status

WIN

2026-05-12

Market price history

Evidence

Iran-U.S. war began Feb 28, 2026 (31 days ago); Khamenei assassinated
Shipping traffic collapsed from 100+ ships/day to ~3-4 ships/day (98% reduction)
Iran implementing 'toll booth' system; IRGC controlling passage and charging millions per transit
Iran has conducted 21+ confirmed attacks on merchant vessels (as of March 12)
U.S. military campaign to restore traffic only began March 19 (10 days in)