SIG-039
geopolitics
PENDING
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
64%
at signal
Our estimate
4%
calibrated
Gap
+59.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Pentagon official (2026-03-28): Full-scale ground invasion would require Congressional declaration and 6-12 month mobilization. Not feasible by EOY.
- State Dept (2026-03-27): Active war operations ongoing but diplomatic channels remain open. No invasion directive issued to CENTCOM.
- NATO intelligence consensus (leaked, 2026-03-26): US airpower dominance in Iran theater; ground invasion would require 200K+ troops and allied support. Europe refusing military participation.
- Historical base rate: US air/cyber campaigns against Iran have occurred (1980s, 2019 drone strikes), but full invasion of 88M-population nation with mountainous terrain not attempted since Iraq 2003. That took 18 months of buildup.
- War Powers Act constraint: US conducting active combat operations legally, but full invasion requires Congressional declaration. Trump admin facing domestic opposition; Congress currently focused on 2026 midterms (8 months away).