SIG-037
geopolitics
PENDING
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
20%
at signal
Our estimate
8%
calibrated
Gap
+11.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Zelenskyy elected in 2024 with strong mandate; wartime incumbency typically protected
- Ukrainian constitution prevents snap elections without 226-seat parliamentary supermajority
- Removal mechanisms: electoral loss (next vote 2029), impeachment (very rare during war), death/incapacity (low base rate)
- Public opinion: 73% approval rating as wartime leader (NATO polling, March 2026); opposition fragmented
- Historical precedent: Leaders in active conflict removed within 9-month window <5% of time