SIG-036
politics
PENDING
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-11-03
Market price
16%
at signal
Our estimate
31%
calibrated
Gap
+15.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-11-03 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Race to the WH March 2026: Democrats at 69% odds to win House, Republicans at ~31%
- Democrats need only 3 net seat flips to gain majority (218 needed, current GOP narrow advantage)
- Cook Political Report 2026 House ratings: 42 battleground districts (12% of total), Democrats hold 22, Republicans hold 20
- Historical midterm pattern: Party holding presidency loses 20-35 seats on average. Trump won 2024, faces headwind in 2026.
- Democrats have individual-donor fundraising advantage, indicating engaged base and momentum from recent special elections