SIG-034
general
LOSS
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-03-29T16:00:00+00:00
Market price
22%
at signal
Our estimate
26%
calibrated
Gap
+3.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-03-29T16:00:00+00:00 close
Evidence
- Michigan: 34-3 (1-seed, #3 ranked), Tennessee: 25-11 (6-seed, #23-25 ranked)
- Tournament dominance: Michigan won by +21, +23, +13 in prior games
- Michigan 7.5-point favorite (implies ~25-26% for Tennessee)
- Expert predictions all favor Michigan by 10+ points
- Michigan 7-5 all-time, 4 straight recent wins vs Tennessee