SIG-033
politics
PENDING
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-11-03
Market price
36%
at signal
Our estimate
22%
calibrated
Gap
+13.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-11-03 close
Market price history
Evidence
- California voters rejected Prop 27 (2022) and Prop 28 (2024)
- Tax proposals historically underperform in mid-term elections
- Polling shows 40% support; historical conversion rate ~60% = ~24% probability
- Previous CA wealth taxes (AB 259, 2019) died in committee
- Market overweighted to populist momentum vs. structural voter resistance
Counter-evidence
- Billionaire wealth taxes gaining national momentum; California could lead on wealth redistribution.