SIG-032
general
PENDING
Trump out as President before 2027?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
18%
at signal
Our estimate
2%
calibrated
Gap
+15.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Trump is 79 years old; modern medical care has eliminated most in-office deaths (0 of 19 presidents since 1950)
- Republican Senate controls Congress; impeachment conviction politically impossible (requires 2/3 majority)
- No resignation catalysts evident; Trump actively governing Operation Epic Fury (Iran conflict)
- Assassination risk very low in modern era (~0.1% baseline across full term)
- Age-adjusted mortality for 79-year-old male over 9 months: ~1-2%