SIG-029
geopolitics
LOSS
US × Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
40%
at signal
Our estimate
15%
calibrated
Gap
+25.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- Iran rejected US 15-point plan; FM publicly denies any peace talks
- Israel struck IRGC navy commander and Isfahan targets; Iran fired missiles at central Israel
- VP Vance chided Netanyahu for overselling regime change — limited US leverage
- Pakistan backchannel confirmed but Iran publicly refuses to negotiate