SIG-028
geopolitics
LOSS
US × Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-15
Market price
28%
at signal
Our estimate
9%
calibrated
Gap
+19.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-15 close
Evidence
- Iran rejected US 15-point plan; FM publicly denies any peace talks
- Israel struck IRGC navy commander and Isfahan targets; Iran fired missiles at central Israel
- VP Vance chided Netanyahu for overselling regime change — limited US diplomatic leverage