SIG-027
geopolitics
LOSS
US × Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-07
Market price
14%
at signal
Our estimate
3%
calibrated
Gap
+11.0pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-07 close
Evidence
- Iran rejected US 15-point plan; FM publicly denies peace talks have taken place
- Active military escalation: Israel struck IRGC navy commander + Isfahan targets; Iran fired missiles at central Israel
- VP Vance chided Netanyahu for overselling regime change — no US diplomatic pressure for deal