SIG-026
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
US × Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-07
Market price
14%
at signal
Our estimate
3%
calibrated
Gap
+10.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-04-07 close
Evidence
- Iran rejected US ceasefire plan 2 days ago; FM denies any talks occurring (Al Jazeera, NBC News)
- Trump's energy strike pause deadline expires April 6 — Iran has not engaged (NPR)
- Only 11 days to close; resolution requires mutual public confirmation from both govts