SIG-024
politics
WIN
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-03-31
Market price
46%
at signal
Our estimate
65%
calibrated
Gap
+18.9pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-03-31 close
Evidence
- Senate vote failed for 5th time today (54-46)
- Thune dismissed Democratic counteroffer as "unserious"
- Day 40+ of shutdown — TSA absences at 40%
- 5 days to deadline with positions hardening