SIG-023
politics
PENDING
Will Keir Starmer be out as UK PM by June 30, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
44%
at signal
Our estimate
20%
calibrated
Gap
+24.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-06-30 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Labour holds 403 MPs — 81 needed to trigger leadership challenge, an unprecedented threshold
- No sitting Labour PM has ever faced a leadership election in party history
- Survived Epstein crisis Feb 2026 with full cabinet support intact
- Structural barriers to removal are insurmountable within timeframe