SIG-022
geopolitics
LOSS
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
64%
at signal
Our estimate
38%
calibrated
Gap
+25.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- White House official, March 26 2026: Trump 'has no current plans to send troops' to Iran — statement issued after 82nd Airborne deployment announced (CNN, CBS, WaPo)
- Military expert consensus, AP/WaPo March 24-25 2026: deployed force of ~6,700 troops (82nd Airborne + Marines) 'not sufficient for major invasion nor to hold a single city' — sized for 'limited/targeted ops only'
- Iran actively mining and fortifying Kharg Island with MANPADS and anti-armor mines (CNN March 25, BusinessToday March 26) — raising operational cost and risk of any ground entry significantly
- Historical base rate: US has NEVER physically entered Iranian sovereign territory in 40+ years of direct conflict and hostility — all 5 prior timeframe markets (Jan 31, Feb 28, Mar 1, Mar 3, Mar 14) resolved NO
- March 31 market (5 days away) priced at only 24.5% YES — implies crowd sees entry as unlikely in the near term, making the April 30 jump to 63.5% structurally aggressive