SIG-021
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
44%
at signal
Our estimate
8%
calibrated
Gap
+36.0pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- CNBC (Mar 25): Iran rejected US ceasefire terms — counter-demands include Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, reparations, end to all US/Israeli regional ops
- Al Jazeera (Mar 25): Iran denied direct US-Iran talks exist; US claims are the US talking to itself
- Time (Mar 25): No bilateral framework in place — Pakistan mediators still attempting to arrange a first meeting
- Base rate: war started Feb 28 (<4 weeks ago); formal ceasefire within 60 days with active rejection from one side: <10%