SIG-020
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-15
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
8%
calibrated
Gap
+25.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-15 close
Evidence
- Al Jazeera (Mar 25): Iran called the US 15-point peace plan ‘maximalist, unreasonable’ — rejected outright
- Al Jazeera (Mar 25): Iran FM — ‘no negotiations planned’; US diplomacy claims are ‘the US talking to itself’
- Resolution requires clear public confirmation from both govts — Iran has publicly stated the opposite
- Iran counter-demands Strait of Hormuz sovereignty — non-starter; positions remain incompatible 3 weeks from deadline