SIG-018
sports
WIN
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–26 NBA MVP?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-10 · Resolved 2026-05-18
Market price
82%
at signal
Our estimate
94%
calibrated
Gap
+12.3pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-05-18
Market price history
Evidence
- FanDuel -1500 (93.75% implied) — market consensus
- BetMGM, DraftKings, OddsShark: consensus -850 to -1500 across all major books
- Luka Doncic nearest competitor at +1000 (~9%) — no close rival
- Polymarket multi-contract structure systematically underweights dominant frontrunner