SIG-016
geopolitics
WIN
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-03-31
Market price
26%
at signal
Our estimate
13%
calibrated
Gap
+12.5pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-03-31 close
Evidence
- White House insider (Axios, Mar 20): 'We need about a month more of strikes before taking the island' — a March 31 ground entry contradicts their own stated timeline
- Kharg Island air strikes already happened March 13; market held at 25.5%, confirming it resolves only on physical boots-on-ground entry
- ~1,000 82nd Airborne + ~4,700 Marines en route — military experts: 'targeted, short-duration,' not invasion-scale
- Iran actively fortifying Kharg with MANPADS — neither side positioned for imminent ground assault
- Diplomacy still live: US-Iran Pakistan talks proposed for March 27 with Iran's 5-point counterproposal on the table