SIG-014
politics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-03-31
Market price
68%
at signal
Our estimate
80%
calibrated
Gap
+32.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-03-31 close
Evidence
- Day 40 of the shutdown — no deal framework has survived Senate scrutiny
- Trump publicly stated he is 'not happy' with any current proposal (March 25)
- Senate Democrats rejected the GOP framework this week; Dems counteroffer also rejected
- Historical pattern: extended shutdowns rarely resolve in the final 5 days without a clear bipartisan deal already on the table