SIG-013
sports
LOSS
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-12
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
16%
calibrated
Gap
+19.0pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-12 close
Evidence
- Sweden's semi-final vs Ukraine is TODAY — Opta gives them only 32% to advance (21% in 90 mins + extra time/pens)
- Even if Sweden advances, they almost certainly face Poland (Poland ~57% to beat Albania in the other semi)
- Combined two-match probability: ~32% × 48% ≈ 15% — matches our estimate exactly
- Market is pricing Sweden as if the semi-final is already won — classic single-match double-count error
- $131K volume is relatively thin — inefficient market, susceptible to optimism bias