SIG-012
geopolitics
PENDING
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+15.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Khamenei survived the Feb 28 assassination attempt — hardliners consolidated power, succession not disrupted
- Mojtaba Khamenei installed as succession heir March 9, IRGC fully intact and loyal — institutional continuity secured
- Washington Times, Al Jazeera, WaPo: no credible collapse indicators as of March 26
- Manifold Markets independently prices ~26% — cross-platform crowd below Polymarket
- Shorter June 30 horizon only 22.5% — even conflict-accelerated markets don't see regime fall as likely near-term