SIG-010
sports
LOSS
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-05-24 · Resolved 2026-05-20
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
26%
calibrated
Gap
+8.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-05-20
Market price history
Evidence
- Opta model: 26% to win outright (47% reach final × ~55% win rate from there)
- Sportsbook consensus: ~25% — sharp books are 9pp below Polymarket
- QF draw: Bologna, then likely Roma/Porto/Betis-tier — not a soft bracket
- At 34.5%, market is pricing Villa like a co-favourite; the math doesn't support it