SIG-009
sports
PENDING
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-05-27
Market price
88%
at signal
Our estimate
96%
calibrated
Gap
+8.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-05-27 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Opta Analyst model: 97.46% — quant models accounting for all scenarios
- Arsenal: 9 points clear with only 7 games remaining
- Man City drew at West Ham — their closest challenger is dropping points
- Historical base rate: no EPL team has blown a 9-point lead with 7 games remaining. Ever.