SIG-008 sports LOSS

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-18 · Resolved 2026-04-28

Market price

53%

at signal

Our estimate

65%

calibrated

Gap

+12.1pp

market vs ours

Status

LOSS

2026-04-28

Market price history

Evidence

BetMGM -180 (64.3% implied) — sportsbooks increased confidence in Knueppel
Dimers consensus -190 (65.5% implied) — all major books tilted further YES
19.3 PPG / 49% FG, all-time NBA rookie 3-point record — statistical case strengthened
Cooper Flagg played 11 fewer games than Knueppel — visibility gap widens