SIG-007
geopolitics
PENDING
Will Netanyahu cease to be PM of Israel by Dec 31, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
50%
at signal
Our estimate
28%
calibrated
Gap
+21.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Netanyahu re-elected as Likud leader, targets Sept/Oct elections — preference for a late-year vote makes a Dec 31 exit extremely unlikely (Anadolu Agency, March 2026)
- Corruption trial verdict not expected until 2027 — no conviction mechanism removing him in calendar 2026 (Wikipedia: Trial of Benjamin Netanyahu)
- Israeli coalition formation historically takes 6–12 weeks minimum — Oct elections put a new PM in late Dec or Jan 2027 at best, likely missing the deadline (Chatham House, March 2026)
- Budget passes (~55% prob) → Netanyahu controls timing → Oct elections → near-zero Dec 31 exit; if budget fails (~45%), June elections create a narrow but sub-50% exit path
- Historical base rate: only 2 of last 5 Israeli PMs left office within 9 months of an active war or major escalation