SIG-006
geopolitics
LOSS
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
44%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+26.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- Bloomberg March 25 2026: "Iran Rejects US Peace Plan in Blow to Efforts to End War" — counteroffer includes Hormuz sovereignty, reparations, and US base closures
- NPR March 25 2026: Iran's five stated conditions are incompatible with US red lines on every major point
- Historical base rate: major US air campaigns rarely end within 5–7 weeks when the adversary is issuing escalatory counteroffers
- Resolution requires a 14-day zero-action window starting by April 16 — 22 days from today