SIG-005
geopolitics
LOSS
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-15
Market price
30%
at signal
Our estimate
10%
calibrated
Gap
+19.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-15 close
Evidence
- CNBC March 25 2026: Iran rejected Trump's 15-point peace plan, issued counteroffer demanding Strait of Hormuz sovereignty — a US non-starter
- Euronews March 25 2026: Iran escalated attacks on Israel and Gulf states on the same day as rejecting the plan
- Resolution requires 14 consecutive days of zero qualifying military action starting by April 1 — only 7 days away while both sides are actively escalating