SIG-002
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-07-01
Market price
52%
at signal
Our estimate
4%
calibrated
Gap
+47.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-07-01 close
Evidence
- 2026 US Annual Threat Assessment (March 19): China has no fixed invasion timeline — not in 2026, not 2027
- Operational preconditions absent: no carrier staging, no naval blockade positioning, no evacuation of ~300K Chinese nationals from Taiwan
- Historical base rate: 0 invasions across 4 major cross-strait crises over 40+ years (1954, 1958, 1995-96, present)