SIG-001
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
19%
calibrated
Gap
+15.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- Euronews (2026-03-10): US-brokered peace talks are ON HOLD as Washington focus shifts to Iran war. No active negotiating sessions scheduled.
- Japan Times (2026-03-01): Russia explicitly conditioning talks on Ukraine ceding Donetsk region — a non-starter for Kyiv.
- UN General Assembly resolution demanding immediate ceasefire passed but Russia not compliant and not bound (March 2026).
- Historical base rate: Only 1 of the last 8 major state-vs-state conflicts with territorial disputes resolved via ceasefire within 9 months of active fighting — roughly 12%.
- US diplomatic bandwidth entirely consumed by Operation Epic Fury (Iran war, Feb 28 start). Russia-Ukraine track explicitly deprioritized by Trump admin.